Sophie Bennett
Chicken prices have been on the rise in the United States, with the cost-per-pound of a whole chicken increasing by roughly 34% from 2021 to 2023. This surge in prices can be attributed to factors such as high demand, tight supplies, and a transitioning supply chain. As people return to restaurants and travel, the demand for chicken, especially chicken breasts, has skyrocketed. Restaurants are willing to pay a premium for chicken breasts, which may drive up prices in grocery stores. However, some analysts predict that chicken prices will decline as egg production increases and supply chains stabilize.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Reason for price surge | High demand, tighter supplies, transitioning supply chain, bird flu, feed prices |
| Parts with increased prices | Chicken breasts, wings, bone-in legs, boneless breasts |
| Parts with decreased prices | Small wings, boneless, skinless thigh meat |
| Demand | High |
| Supply | Tighter |
| Production | High |
| Consumer behaviour | Eating more chicken, switching to chicken from beef |
| Future price prediction | Expected to increase by 2.2% in 2025 |
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What You'll Learn
Chicken breast prices are skyrocketing
Additionally, there are constraints on the supply side as well. Cold storage supplies of chicken are down by approximately 20% compared to the previous year, tightening the supply further. Moreover, the transition in the supply chain from producing smaller birds during the pandemic, which were primarily destined for grocery stores, to now meeting the demand for larger birds used in processed foods and restaurants takes time and affects the availability of chicken breasts.
The price of chicken feed, such as corn and soybeans, has also increased, which contributes to the higher cost of chicken production. Restaurants' willingness to pay a premium for chicken breasts also influences the market, potentially driving up prices at grocery stores to unprecedented levels.
These factors have collectively led to skyrocketing chicken breast prices. It remains to be seen how long these high prices will persist, but it is likely that they will continue until production can catch up with demand and the supply chain fully adjusts to the post-pandemic market conditions.
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Demand for chicken is increasing
Chicken is a versatile, affordable meat that is quick to grow, and this is fuelling consistent demand. In 2023, per capita chicken consumption in the US was around 100 pounds, compared to 57 pounds for beef and 15 pounds for turkey. Chicken is also a good source of protein, and as incomes have risen in developing economies, consumers have bought more animal-based proteins.
Chicken breasts and wings are in high demand, with wing prices averaging more than $2 per pound in October 2022. Demand for chicken breasts is driven by restaurants, with chicken sandwiches and chicken biscuits being a popular menu item. This demand is pushing up the price of chicken breasts, with wholesale prices for boneless skinless breast meat reaching an all-time high of $3.50 per pound in May 2022, and retail prices ballooning to a record $4.75 per pound in September 2022.
Demand for chicken is expected to continue to increase. Between 2001 and 2021, global poultry imports rose by an average of 4% per year, and they are projected to continue to grow through 2031.
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Supply chain transition
The price of chicken in the US has been steadily increasing, with the cost-per-pound of a whole chicken rising by 34% from 2021 to 2023. This can be attributed to a combination of factors, including rising consumer demand, tight supplies, and a transitioning supply chain.
Supply and Demand
The demand for chicken in the US has been consistently high, surpassing beef as the country's most consumed protein. This shift in consumer preferences has resulted in increased pressure on chicken suppliers to meet the growing demand. Restaurants, in particular, have been facing challenges in obtaining sufficient supplies of chicken, especially specific cuts such as breasts and wings, which are in high demand.
The supply chain for chicken is undergoing adjustments to adapt to the increasing demand. Poultry producers are working to increase their output by producing as many chickens as possible. However, this process takes time due to the lifecycle of chickens. It requires fertilized eggs to produce chicks, which then need time to grow into broilers ready for processing. This lag in production can lead to a delay in meeting the immediate demand, causing a temporary tightening of supplies.
Feed Prices
Another factor impacting the supply chain is the cost of feed for chickens. Corn and soybean prices, essential components of chicken feed, have been relatively high compared to previous years. These higher feed prices contribute to the overall cost of producing chicken, which is then reflected in the prices charged to consumers.
Economic Factors
Economic factors, such as interest rates, energy prices, and labour market conditions, also play a role in the rising chicken prices. Inflationary pressures across the economy contribute to the increase in food prices, including chicken. Additionally, seasonal trends, trade, plant and animal disease, and growing conditions can further influence the cost of producing and supplying chicken to the market.
Future Outlook
While chicken prices have been on an upward trajectory, there are expectations for a slight increase in supply during the third quarter of 2025. However, this projection is subject to bird health issues and other economic variables. It is challenging to predict the exact trajectory of chicken prices, but consumers can anticipate continued adjustments in the market as the supply chain responds to demand dynamics and economic influences.
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Bird flu and government agencies
Bird flu, or avian influenza, is a disease caused by infection with avian (bird) influenza Type A viruses. In 2025, H5 bird flu is causing outbreaks in wild birds and poultry, as well as in other animals, including dairy cows, and sporadic human cases. The CDC is monitoring the situation and working with states to keep an eye on people with animal exposures. The USDA and FDA are also involved in investigating the outbreak.
In the past, bird flu has affected the price of chicken. During a previous outbreak, the price of frozen chicken and turkey soared. The current outbreak is impacting the supply of eggs, which may also impact the supply of chickens in the future, as they are needed to produce chicks. This could lead to higher prices for chicken.
Government agencies like the CDC, USDA, and FDA are working to monitor and contain the outbreak. The CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for bird flu activity in people, and the FDA is testing dairy products for the presence of the virus. The USDA is also reporting data on HPAI detections in animals. These agencies are taking steps to protect public health and ensure food safety.
The impact of the current bird flu outbreak on chicken prices is not yet clear. However, if the outbreak continues to affect poultry supplies, it could drive up prices. Additionally, as restaurants resume operations and demand for chicken products increases, prices may rise further. The situation is dynamic, and government agencies are working to manage the outbreak and mitigate its impact on the food supply and public health.
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Food-at-home prices predicted to increase
Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase by 2.2% in 2025, slower than the 20-year historical average rate of a 2.6% price increase. This is due to several factors, including changes in prices paid to farmers for agricultural commodities, interest rates, energy prices, labour market tightness, and consumer demand.
Chicken prices have been increasing steadily, with the cost-per-pound of a whole chicken rising by roughly 34% from 2021 to 2023. This is due to rising consumer demand, with chicken surpassing beef as the most consumed protein in the US. The demand for specific cuts of chicken, such as breasts and wings, has also contributed to the price increase, as restaurants are willing to pay a premium for these cuts.
The shift in consumer behaviour post-pandemic has also played a role in the rising prices. During the pandemic, smaller birds were grown for grocery stores. However, as people return to restaurants and travel, the demand for larger birds used in chicken strips, sandwiches, and nuggets has increased, requiring time for producers to adjust their operations.
Additionally, the price of chicken is influenced by the cost of feed, such as corn and soybean, which have been relatively high compared to previous years. These factors have collectively contributed to the surge in chicken prices, and it remains to be seen if consumers will shift their preferences towards alternative options.
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Frequently asked questions
Chicken prices have been rising since 2021, and there are predictions that they will continue to do so.
Chicken prices are rising due to high demand and limited supply. The COVID-19 pandemic and bird flu have impacted the supply of chickens, and there is also increased demand for chicken as people return to restaurants and travel.
It is difficult to predict exactly when chicken prices will stabilize. However, it is expected that as flocks of egg-laying chickens increase and supply increases, chicken prices will decrease.
Yes, frozen chicken is often cheaper than fresh chicken and can be a good alternative to help offset the rising costs of fresh chicken.
Chicken has become the most popular meat choice in the US, surpassing beef. However, beef prices have continued to inflate while chicken prices have shown signs of deflation in certain categories.
